The Elder Scrolls franchise may never have received a dedicated single-player spin-off in the vein of Fallout: New Vegas due to the existence and ongoing support of The Elder Scrolls Online, according to Kurt Kuhlmann, Skyrim's former co-lead designer.
Kuhlmann suggested that The Elder Scrolls Online (ESO) served to satisfy demand for new content within the franchise, thereby reducing calls for a spin-off. "I do think The Elder Scrolls Online took the heat off," he told FRVR, as reported by VGC. "There was a new Elder Scrolls product, and it was ongoing. It was creating new content constantly."
He noted that for a significant portion of the player base, ESO represents their primary experience with The Elder Scrolls, and the ongoing development of the MMO likely met their desire for continued engagement with the universe. "There are a lot of people to whom The Elder Scrolls is now The Elder Scrolls Online. That’s their experience with it. That’s what they love. That’s where they got their Elder Scrolls gaming experience, and that’s probably what they want more of."
Beyond the success of ESO, Kuhlmann posited another reason for the absence of a New Vegas-style spin-off: Bethesda director Todd Howard's protective stance over the Elder Scrolls IP. Unlike Fallout, which Bethesda acquired, The Elder Scrolls is a wholly homegrown franchise. Kuhlmann theorized that Howard might have wished to avoid the sort of fan debates that arose around Fallout: New Vegas, where fans argued whether Obsidian's take on the IP was superior to Bethesda's own Fallout 3.
"Todd, from my time there, he is very protective of it," Kuhlmann stated, suggesting that Howard may have been hesitant to risk creating a similar situation for The Elder Scrolls. The question of which studio might have been a suitable candidate for a potential Elder Scrolls spin-off during the 2010s remains speculative.
Obsidian Entertainment, the studio behind Fallout: New Vegas, has since released its own first-person fantasy RPG, Avowed. Microsoft, which now owns the Elder Scrolls IP through its acquisition of Bethesda's parent company, ZeniMax Media, has shown a willingness to leverage its acquired franchises for greater shareholder value, leaving open the possibility of future collaborations or spin-offs under new management.