Gears of War: E-Day's launch revenue on Xbox is projected to be significantly impacted by its inclusion in Game Pass, according to an analysis by Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics. The report indicates that the subscription service will "cannibalize" a substantial portion of the game's earning potential.
Elliott's data reveals that Gears of War: E-Day has already surpassed 120,000 copies sold on Steam, generating over $7 million in revenue. This figure is reportedly more than double the sales of Halo: Campaign Evolved over a comparable period. Despite this strong initial performance on PC, Elliott predicts that E-Day is unlikely to reach one million copies sold on Steam.
The analyst further suggested that the majority of revenue from the Xbox version will be offset by Game Pass. While Game Pass inclusion can drive subscriptions, Elliott noted that direct sales alone do not present the complete financial picture. This situation mirrors Microsoft's broader strategy, which has seen some key titles, such as new Call of Duty releases, being withheld from Game Pass at launch to potentially boost direct sales. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has acknowledged that the company's significant investment in Game Pass has not yielded the desired outcome for its core business, prompting consideration of 'windowing' titles to maximize revenue from direct sales.
Elliott has previously expressed skepticism about the economic viability of Xbox exclusives, including Gears of War: E-Day and Clockwork Revolution, given their exclusivity to Xbox and PC but not PlayStation 5. He argued that console exclusivity is no longer a significant driver for Xbox hardware sales due to the platform's current market position and the availability of these games on PC. Elliott described these exclusive titles as "sacrificial lambs for hearts-and-minds, not economics."
Regarding rumors of a canceled PlayStation 5 port for Gears of War: E-Day, Elliott stated that Microsoft missed an opportunity to generate additional revenue by not bringing the game to Sony's console. Despite Microsoft's denial of a last-minute cancellation, evidence of a PS5 version has surfaced, and Elliott anticipates a port could still materialize at some point. The analyst also pointed to inconsistencies in Microsoft's messaging regarding timed exclusives, citing the example of Starfield's release strategy.