Grand Theft Auto 6 is slated for release on November 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, carrying with it an immense weight of expectation. Predicting its commercial success appears to be a safe bet, with the primary question revolving around just how significant that success will be and what records the highly anticipated title might break.
The franchise's previous installment, Grand Theft Auto 5, launched in 2013 and achieved $800 million in revenue within its first 24 hours, reaching $1 billion in its first three days. Even a decade later, GTA 5 remains a monumental seller, with over 230 million copies sold. Rockstar's more recent title, Red Dead Redemption II from 2018, debuted with $725 million in revenue over its opening weekend and has since sold over 87 million copies, placing it among the top five best-selling games ever. Bethesda's 2015 release, Fallout 4, also saw a massive launch, shipping 12 million copies on day one and generating over $750 million in sales.
To surpass these figures, GTA 6 faces a high bar. However, projections from research firm Sensor Tower suggest preorders could reach 25 million by launch, a figure that, if accurate, would position the game to significantly outperform GTA 5's initial sales. A contributing factor to GTA 6's potential revenue is its higher price point of $80 for the base game, compared to the $60 launch price of GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption II. Even accounting for inflation, which would make $60 in 2013 equivalent to approximately $85 today, GTA 6 is still positioned for a larger launch.
Despite the anticipation, official preorder figures from Rockstar or parent company Take-Two Interactive remain undisclosed. Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick has stated that disclosing preorder numbers could be misleading, as preorders are technically cancellable. He has, however, described GTA 6's preorder performance as "vastly" surpassing international expectations, without providing specific figures or definitions for those expectations. Zelnick emphasized that the demand for GTA 6 is unprecedented, stating that "No one’s ever seen anything like this before at Take-Two, or in the industry."
Sensor Tower's estimates, as of October 13, indicated approximately 6.08 million preorders, translating to roughly $594 million in revenue so far, with a 74% to 26% split favoring PlayStation 5 over Xbox Series X|S. If these preorder numbers reach the projected 25 million, it would equate to approximately $2 billion in revenue, covering development and a significant portion of marketing costs. Sensor Tower anticipates a surge in preorders in the final week before launch and a near 50/50 split between the $80 and $100 editions at the game's release, with early adopters leaning towards the premium edition.
GTA 6 is currently marketed as a single-player console exclusive. However, industry expectations lean towards a future release of a new iteration of GTA Online, similar to the model that continues to generate substantial revenue for GTA 5 through microtransactions and subscriptions. A potential PC version is also anticipated, which could drive another sales cycle for the title. Investment firm Jefferies has indicated that Take-Two's stock, trading around $200 per share, could rise to $300, driven by the anticipated success of GTA 6 and its accompanying online component and PC release.
The console market at GTA 6's launch differs from GTA 5's release. GTA 5 benefited from launching near the end of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 lifecycle, which had a combined install base of over 150 million. In contrast, the current generation of PS5 and Xbox Series X|S consoles, while having a combined estimated install base of over 120 million, are facing higher prices due to global economic factors. This could present a different dynamic for initial hardware sales influencing game adoption.
Looking long-term, surpassing GTA 5's cumulative sales of over 230 million copies may be challenging, given GTA 5's unique market position and its release prior to the rise of dominant live-service games. While GTA 6 is expected to be ported to future console generations, potential delays in next-generation hardware and the increasing length of console cycles could alter the platform migration strategy compared to GTA 5. The possibility of a Nintendo Switch 2 version remains unconfirmed, though tests have reportedly been conducted.
Despite these potential headwinds, the evolution of GTA Online is predicted to be a significant revenue driver, potentially surpassing the main game in the long run. This is expected to be fueled by a greater emphasis on user-generated content and a more expansive world designed to keep players engaged and create new monetization opportunities. For consumers considering purchasing a new console alongside the game, the current price of PS5 and Xbox Series X|S models may pose a significant initial investment.