The 30th Celebration set for the Pokémon Trading Card Game is reportedly offering some of the most generous pull rates in years, a stark contrast to recent sets that have seen increasingly scarce rare cards. This abundance is already having a noticeable effect on the resale market, with prices for sought-after cards beginning to plummet.
The 30th Celebration set follows a quinquennial tradition, featuring Pikachu stamps on every card and a mix of new and reprinted classic cards. Uniquely, international audiences are receiving this set simultaneously with Japan, and for the first time, packs contain only five cards, mirroring the Japanese format. Despite this reduction in card count per pack, initial analyses suggest a greater than 50 percent chance of pulling at least an ex card, with particularly favorable rates for Special Illustration Rares (SIRs) and the new Future Rare cards.
This set introduces several distinct features. Every card within a pack is guaranteed to be at least a holo, and each pack includes a holo energy card and a guaranteed holo Pikachu from a subset of 30 unique Pikachu cards. Beyond the standard ex cards, collectors can find Illustration Rares (IRs), SIRs, and the new Future Rare cards featuring Mew and Mewtwo. A significant addition is the Classic Collection, comprising 30 fan-favorite cards from the past three decades, including iconic cards like the original base set holo Charizard and Gengar Prime. Adding to the rarity are three 'RGB Mew' cards, so scarce that The Pokémon Company has not officially acknowledged their existence, with rumors suggesting they could appear as rarely as one in 20,000 packs.
A Return to Generosity
Prior sets, such as the Crown Zenith set released in January 2023, were lauded for their high pull rates and the inclusion of the desirable Galarian Gallery subset. However, subsequent releases in the Scarlet & Violet era have been criticized for stingier pull rates, with rare cards like SIRs becoming exceptionally difficult to obtain. This scarcity had contributed to a difficult resale market for the Pokémon TCG over the past two years.
The 30th Celebration set appears to be reversing this trend. Early data from pack openings on platforms like YouTube indicates that the frequency of SIRs is approximately 5.24 percent, a four to five times increase compared to recent sets. Illustration Rares are also appearing twice as often, found in roughly one out of every five packs. This increased accessibility means that consumers have a higher likelihood of pulling desirable full-art cards from products like Elite Trainer Boxes and collection boxes, which can make the hobby more enjoyable and less dependent on the secondary market.
The impact on prices is already evident. The RGB Mew and Mewtwo Future Rare cards, initially listed for around $1,000 on release day, have seen their resale value drop to approximately $150. This deflation is attributed to the fact that collectors can more readily acquire these cards directly from packs, thereby reducing the leverage of scalpers and resellers. While it typically takes a few weeks for prices to stabilize, the current trend suggests a move towards pre-bubble pricing levels. While the long-term impact on The Pokémon Company's set design strategy remains to be seen, the 30th Celebration set is currently a cause for celebration among collectors for its rewarding pull rates and the resulting market correction.