Fallout co-creator Tim Cain has advocated for a greater focus on analyzing unsuccessful video games, suggesting that both publishers and players overlook valuable insights by concentrating solely on successes.
In a recent video, Cain argued that a tendency to ignore games that were neither commercially successful nor critically acclaimed represents a missed learning opportunity. He distinguishes this from outright failures, pointing instead to titles that were simply "not very good, and it was forgotten." Such games, he posits, offer unique lessons that are often missed when the industry fixates on popular titles or exceptionally high-profile flops.
Cain explained that publishers, driven by sales figures, often fail to learn from failures because their analysis is limited to games that sold well. Similarly, players frequently express a desire for more games like popular titles, without a clear understanding of what specific elements contribute to their success. When bad games are discussed by players, Cain noted, the focus tends to be on well-known, notorious failures rather than the more numerous, forgotten mediocre ones.
This selective focus, Cain likened to survivorship bias, where the common features of successful games are analyzed, but the common features of unsuccessful games are overlooked. He believes that by examining less successful titles, developers and publishers could gain a deeper understanding of game design and market reception. "In addition to looking for common features among games that sell well, you should look for common features among games that are considered unsuccessful," Cain stated.
He further elaborated that it is not always easy to discern the exact reasons for a game's success. Even critically acclaimed titles can possess flaws such as low framerates, poor user interfaces, or bugs. Cain suggests that a more thorough understanding of game design can be achieved by critically examining games that did not perform well, to better understand what went wrong.