Shawn Layden, formerly head of PlayStation's first-party studios, believes the escalating costs of triple-A game development are unsustainable and is formulating a plan to revitalize the double-A market. Layden has long advocated that development budgets have grown exponentially, stating that what cost $1 million on PlayStation 1 could cost $150 million by the PlayStation 4 generation for top-tier titles, excluding marketing.
This trajectory suggests that PlayStation 5 games could eventually demand budgets between $300 million and $400 million, a figure Layden deems unfeasible for consistent returns. These estimates align with industry reports, such as those from Bloomberg's Jason Schreier, which place triple-A budgets at $300 million or more. For context, Uncharted 2: Among Thieves reportedly cost $20 million in 2009, while The Last of Us Part 2 reached an estimated $220 million in 2020. Even larger franchises like Call of Duty have seen costs soar, with Black Ops Cold War reportedly costing $700 million, and Grand Theft Auto 6 is estimated to have exceeded $1 billion.
While a select few titles like Grand Theft Auto 6 may recoup such immense investments, many studios struggle under the financial pressure of blockbuster development. This reality, coupled with rising game and console prices, presents a significant challenge for both developers and consumers.
Layden contends that the fundamental game publishing model has not evolved since the 1990s, failing to keep pace with gaming's growth into the largest entertainment sector. He observes that while music has a pervasive social impact, gaming, despite its revenue, remains confined to a more limited audience. This archaic model, he argues, incentivizes funding for sequels or games based on established intellectual properties, stifling original creative endeavors reminiscent of the PlayStation 1 and 2 eras. "The problem we see there," Layden explained, "is the current model incentivises or almost dictates that to get funding... you better be a sequel or you better be based on something like Lord of the Rings, or you had better be 'it's just like Grand Theft Auto but...'." This approach, he feels, alienates potential new players who are not already engaged with gaming.
To address this, Layden is establishing a "publishing concern" focused on the underserved double-A market. This segment typically involves smaller teams, often fewer than 70 people, working with more constrained budgets, resulting in shorter, more focused experiences like Lies of P, RoboCop: Rogue City, or Space Marine 2. These games, Layden believes, offer a more sustainable economic model and can appeal to a broader audience, including those not currently engaged with major gaming franchises. He emphasized that "you don't need triple-digit millions to make a great game."
Layden sees potential in a market fatigue with the current trends, citing stagnation in player numbers for some live-service titles. He notes a resurgence in interest for single-player games, a trend observed in recent showcases. Furthermore, he highlights a consumer desire for games that can be completed, contrasting with the trend of massive titles that many players do not finish. He suggests that developers should consider the time constraints of their audience, particularly the shift from a younger, time-rich demographic to an older, time-poor one. Layden's new venture aims to provide funding and support for developers looking to create these types of focused, engaging experiences, potentially reintroducing the creative risk-taking that characterized earlier console generations. 
