The global memory supply crisis may extend well beyond the previously anticipated 2028 timeline, with SK hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung forecasting that demand will continue to exceed supply capacity even after 2030. Kwak stated that next year is projected to be the worst in the industry's history from a supply perspective.
"Our customer demand continues to go up, while our capacity has limitations," Kwak told Reuters. "We still forecast that customer demand will remain higher than our supply capacity even beyond 2030. But we are doing our best to solve the problem." This prediction comes as SK hynix aims to use capital from its recent Nasdaq listing for significant expansion projects, including a new fabrication hub in Yongin and an advanced packaging facility in Cheongju, both in South Korea.
The company is also evaluating potential global sites for future wafer fabrication investments, with the US, Japan, and Southeast Asia under consideration. However, market volatility has impacted SK hynix's stock, with a significant plunge on Monday following its Nasdaq debut, which was seven times oversubscribed. Analysts suggest this dip may be influenced by investor concerns about potential oversupply due to substantial investments in the AI chip industry and planned capacity expansions by SK hynix, Micron, and Samsung in 2027 and 2028.
Furthermore, there are growing questions about the sustainability of the current AI spending boom. Analysts note that while AI adoption is accelerating, monetization remains uncertain, and profitability for key players appears to be under pressure. A shift in funding towards debt or equity also raises concerns about the maintainability of current spending levels in the AI sector. If AI investment fails to yield expected returns or if data center expansion slows, demand for memory chips could decrease significantly, potentially exacerbating an oversupply situation.