The immersive sim genre, known for its complex systems and player agency, may be fundamentally incompatible with the current AAA development model, according to veteran designer Randy Smith Evergreen. Evergreen, who worked on foundational titles like Thief: The Dark Project, System Shock 2, and Dark Messiah of Might and Magic, believes the genre's audience is too small to justify the massive budgets associated with today's blockbuster games.
"Myself and other folks who have worked extensively on immersive sims have a belief that the immersive sims that are being created today and are slated for the future are, by and large, thinking of themselves as [existing] in an arms race to be bigger and better," Evergreen stated. He points to games like Deus Ex: Mankind Divided and Arkane's modern output as examples of titles that aimed for increased fidelity and scale, attempting to compete with massive open-world games and shooter blockbusters.
This pursuit of AAA status and scale, Evergreen argues, is a misreading of the immersive sim audience. He cites Arkane Studios' recent history as evidence; both Dishonored 2 and Prey, while critically acclaimed immersive sims, were considered commercial disappointments due to publisher expectations that were out of step with the genre's relatively niche appeal. The closure of Arkane Austin following the reception of Redfall further underscores the challenges of fitting immersive sims into a AAA mold.
Evergreen proposes an alternative path for immersive sims: focusing on mid-tier or indie development. "There's quite a few of us who think the way to do it is to be III or AA," he explained. This would involve budgets in the range of $3 million to $10 million, with passionate teams leveraging their experience or deep understanding of the genre to create more focused experiences.
He contrasts this with the massive budgets of AAA titles, suggesting that a smaller, more agile development approach could yield comparable commercial results. Evergreen noted that the original Thief, developed with a $3 million budget in the 1990s (equivalent to roughly $6 million today), demonstrates the genre's potential for success at a lower cost. He posits that a modern immersive sim with a modest budget might not sell significantly fewer copies than a $250 million AAA equivalent.
While some AAA immersive sims like Arkane's Deathloop have achieved considerable sales figures, reaching millions of copies sold, many indie titles in the genre, such as Heat Signature and Gloomwood, achieve success with much smaller sales numbers, often under 500,000 units. This profitability is attainable due to lower development costs and reduced publisher expectations. The continued vibrancy of the indie immersive sim scene, coupled with the struggles of larger studios in the genre, suggests that Evergreen's proposed shift towards AA and indie development could be a more sustainable path forward for immersive sims.