Shawn Layden, former president and CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment America, has voiced concerns about the escalating costs of blockbuster game development, proposing a revitalization of the double-A (AA) gaming tier as a solution. Layden, who previously oversaw PlayStation's first-party studios, argues that the current trajectory of development budgets is unsustainable.
"Every generation it costs twice as much to build a game," Layden stated, illustrating the exponential increase from the PlayStation 1 era to current-generation consoles. He noted that while PS4-era titles could cost upwards of $150 million before marketing, PlayStation 5 games are projected to reach $300 million to $400 million, a cost he deems "outright not sustainable." These figures align with industry reports, which place triple-A budgets at $300 million or more. For context, while Uncharted 2: Among Thieves reportedly cost $20 million in 2009, The Last of Us Part 2 reached $220 million in 2020. Even larger franchises like Call of Duty have seen budgets soar, with Black Ops Cold War estimated at $700 million, and Grand Theft Auto 6 reportedly exceeding $1 billion.
While such colossal budgets might be viable for massive titles like Grand Theft Auto 6, Layden suggests that the majority of games struggle to recoup these expenses, leading to studio closures and impacting consumer pricing. "The current structures we've built over time no longer hold," he observed. To address this, Layden is reportedly developing a plan to reintroduce the AA gaming sector. This tier, positioned below triple-A and above indie titles, typically involves smaller teams, under 70 people, and operates within more defined budgetary constraints. Games like Lies of P, RoboCop: Rogue City, and Space Marine 2 are cited as examples of successful AA titles that are often shorter and more focused.
Layden posits that the fundamental game publishing model has remained unchanged since the early 1990s. This model, while instrumental in gaming's growth into the largest entertainment sector, has not broadened its social reach. He contrasted this with music, where nearly everyone has a favorite song, noting that gaming's impact, despite its revenue, remains confined to a specific demographic.
The current industry structure, he explained, incentivizes or even dictates that securing funding, especially for triple-digit million dollar projects, requires developers to produce sequels or games based on established intellectual properties like Lord of the Rings, or to create titles that are essentially clones of existing successes. This approach stifles the development of original, experimental concepts that were more prevalent in the PS1 and PS2 eras. "The thing with writing wacky new stuff is that's really our only chance to try to entice currently non-gaming people into our space," Layden argued. He believes that by continually producing more of the same, the industry fails to attract new players who may be indifferent to current blockbuster franchises.
To counteract this, Layden is working on establishing a "publishing concern" aimed at supporting the underserved AA market. While the specifics of this venture remain undisclosed, he indicated it is unlikely to be a full-fledged publisher, suggesting it might function as an investment avenue for AA games. His core belief is that "you don't need triple-digit millions to make a great game."
Layden also pointed to signs of market fatigue, citing the stagnation of player numbers in games like Fortnite and the cyclical nature of industry fads, such as the plastic guitar era or the push for MMOs and live service games. He observed a noticeable swing back towards single-player games, a trend seemingly supported by recent showcases dominated by such titles. However, he specifically champions shorter, single-player experiences that offer the satisfaction of completion, a sentiment echoed by players who miss the days of finishing games. Data suggests that less than half of players finish today's longest games, prompting Layden to question the continued focus on such lengthy titles.
He emphasized the importance of understanding the target audience, noting the shift in demographics. "When the average gamer was between 16 and 24, you are time rich and money poor; but if you're between 28 and 32, you may not be money rich, but you're definitely time poor," he remarked, advocating for game designs that cater to these differing life stages and time constraints. Layden's post-Sony activities have included consulting for major companies and sharing his insights on industry trends, with further details on his AA initiative expected in the future.