A notable shift is occurring in the global memory market, with major motherboard and component manufacturers like MSI and Asus beginning to validate their products for memory produced by Chinese companies, particularly CXMT. This move is driven by an anticipated surge in DRAM production capacity from China.
Analysis suggests that CXMT could significantly increase its DRAM production, potentially adding between 600,000 and 1.1 million wafers per month. This would bring its total capacity to approximately 950,000 to 1.45 million wafers per month. By the end of 2026, CXMT is projected to produce around 350,000 wafers per month, a figure comparable to Micron's estimated output for the current year. This rapid expansion is facilitated by factors such as the construction of new fabrication plants and research and development facilities, with cleanroom construction times in China reportedly around 12 months, considerably faster than the 21-24 months typically seen elsewhere globally. Significant state backing further accelerates these developments.
The growing demand for memory, coupled with this expanding production, makes the validation efforts by component makers understandable. Motherboard manufacturers are updating their BIOS to support faster Chinese memory, and companies like Corsair and Lexar are planning to integrate CXMT DRAM into their RAM kits, at least for the Chinese market. Previously, while Chinese-made RAM was found to be adequate for gaming, its value proposition was less competitive. However, with the projected increase in production volume, this could change, especially if the validation extends beyond China-specific hardware.
While AI server demand is substantial and will likely absorb a significant portion of this new global memory capacity, the implications for the broader PC market remain to be seen. The widespread adoption of Chinese-manufactured DRAM could influence pricing and availability for consumers worldwide.