Analysts at Bernstein are forecasting a dramatic shift in the memory market, projecting a significant increase in DRAM and NAND prices through 2027, followed by a considerable drop by the end of 2028. This outlook suggests that consumers hoping for cheaper memory and storage components may need to wait several years.
According to estimates by Bernstein, SK hynix, a major memory manufacturer, could see its gross margin on DRAM reach as high as 90.9% by Q2 2026 and potentially climb to 92.7% by Q4 of this year. The average selling price per gigabyte for DRAM is expected to more than triple from its 2025 levels, potentially reaching $1.85 per GB. The firm further anticipates that DRAM prices will continue to rise, peaking at $2.23 per GB by the end of 2027, which would be nearly five times higher than in 2025, with a gross margin of 94%.
Similar projections extend to NAND flash memory. Bernstein estimates the average selling price per gigabyte for NAND will decrease from $0.32 at the end of 2027 to $0.1 per GB by the end of 2028. This indicates that the latter half of 2028 could present a more favorable market for purchasing both DRAM and NAND components.
Despite these optimistic long-term forecasts for price decreases, the immediate future suggests a challenging period for consumers. SK hynix is reportedly investing over $60 billion in new chip plants in South Korea, aiming to triple its chip output by 2034. However, the construction of these facilities takes time, and the company, along with competitors like Samsung, is expected to gradually increase production to mitigate the risk of oversupply. This measured approach to increasing output, combined with ongoing demand from sectors like AI and potential new console launches, could contribute to sustained high prices in the interim.
While Bernstein's predictions offer a potential light at the end of the memory crisis tunnel, the specifics of such a significant price drop remain speculative. The actual market behavior will depend on numerous factors, including the continued expansion of the AI industry and the impact of next-generation console releases on consumer demand for memory and storage.