Acer CEO Jason Chen has offered a more optimistic outlook on the ongoing memory crisis, stating that he believes the shortage will not extend until 2030 as some forecasts suggest. He posits that the scarcity is primarily related to high-speed DDR5 chips, rather than all DDR4 and DDR5 varieties, and that CPUs are not a significant part of the supply issue.
Chen suggests that memory manufacturers may be exaggerating the duration of the shortage to protect their profit margins. He anticipates that PC prices will continue to increase through the remainder of 2026, with an average rise of 5-20%. However, he forecasts a potential price stabilization around mid-2027, followed by a more significant price reduction by the end of that year.
While other industry figures and research reports, including those from SK Hynix and Micron, have indicated that demand could outstrip supply well beyond 2030, Chen's perspective diverges. He points to the growing capacity of Chinese DRAM manufacturers, such as CXMT, which has reportedly captured a 7% market share. This increased competition, he believes, could expedite the resolution of the supply constraints.
Despite Chen's more positive projections, the article notes that various industry analyses have predicted a much longer-lasting memory shortfall, with some indicating demand in 2030 could exceed current global DRAM capacity by a significant margin. The construction of new semiconductor fabrication plants, essential for increasing supply, is a time-intensive process. Nonetheless, Chen's assertion offers a glimmer of hope for consumers facing rising PC component costs.